What Does Venezuela's Leadership Change Mean for Trinidad and Tobago's Energy Future?

Imagine waking up to news that your next-door neighbor, with whom you share important resources, suddenly has a new boss. That is a bit like what is happening for Trinidad and Tobago (TT) right now, but on a much larger scale, involving oil and gas. The recent change in Venezuelan leadership, with Nicolas Maduro out and Delcy Rodriguez in, has everyone in TT's energy sector scratching their heads and wondering what comes next.

A Big Question Mark Over Shared Gas Projects

TT and Venezuela are like neighbors who share a backyard fence, except their "backyard" is filled with natural gas. For decades, they have been working on projects to tap into these shared gas fields. Former energy minister Kevin Ramnarine explains that nobody really knows what this leadership change means for crucial projects like Dragon and Coucina-Manakin. These are not just any projects; they are vital to TT's energy supply.

Venezuela has a massive amount of natural gas, about 200 trillion cubic feet, much of it very close to TT's waters. Meanwhile, TT has been facing a shortage of natural gas, which has led to industries shrinking and people losing their jobs. It is a classic case of having a treasure chest next door but not being able to access it easily.

The Trump Administration's Bold Moves

Just a few days after Maduro was removed, former US President Trump made some big announcements. He said that up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil, which had been under sanctions, would be sold. The money from these sales, about US$2 billion, would be controlled by him to benefit both the people of Venezuela and the United States. This oil was to be shipped directly to US docks.

Then came reports of US forces intercepting oil tankers carrying Venezuelan oil, some even flying Russian flags. These actions highlight the US's firm stance on sanctions and its influence over Venezuela's oil exports. This kind of geopolitical maneuvering adds another layer of complexity to TT's energy situation.

Who Owns What in the Cross-Border Fields?

When it comes to these shared gas fields, it is not a 50/50 split everywhere. For example, in the Coucina-Manakin field, TT owns about 66 percent of the discovered gas, while Venezuela owns 34 percent. However, Venezuela holds the majority in the Loran-Manatee fields and all of the Dragon gas. This uneven ownership, combined with Venezuela's decision in December to end all energy agreements with TT, puts even more pressure on TT's energy market.

Ramnarine points out that while a "win-win" solution with Venezuela would be ideal, it is hard to see how that can happen right now because of all the uncertainty. There are also US sanctions and licenses from the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to consider. The US government has also emphasized the role American oil companies will play in Venezuela's energy future, even though companies like Shell and BP, which operate in these fields, are based in the UK.

Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar has made it clear that Dragon gas belongs to Venezuela, and TT will respect that. She stated that TT does not covet Venezuelan property and will work with its own resources.

Glimmers of Hope from Local Discoveries

Amidst all this uncertainty, there is some good news on the home front. Touchstone, an energy company, recently announced positive drilling results from a well in Carapal Ridge. This well found a significant amount of oil and natural gas, and they plan to start processing it in early 2026. This development is a welcome boost for TT's natural gas supply, and both Energy Minister Dr. Roodal Moonilal and Minister Ernesto Kesar have expressed their support.

What the Energy Chamber is Watching

Dr. Thackwray "Dax" Driver, CEO of the TT Energy Chamber, says that importing natural gas from neighbors like Venezuela is just one piece of a bigger puzzle. The chamber is also focused on other important issues, such as speeding up approval processes for projects, reforming financial policies, reducing carbon emissions, and developing smaller gas fields.

He stresses that getting more natural gas, whether from local sources or imports, is crucial for the long-term health of TT's gas industry. While Venezuela is the most obvious source for imported gas, the political situation has made progress difficult. The chamber is hopeful that new opportunities will arise for these cross-border projects. Driver also sees Venezuela as a potential market for TT's energy services, especially if there is a resurgence of oil and gas activity there.

The Path Forward

So, what does all of this mean? It means TT's energy future is a complex web of international politics, shared resources, and local efforts. While there are significant challenges and uncertainties stemming from the changes in Venezuela, there are also promising local developments. The focus remains on securing a stable and sustainable energy supply for the nation, navigating the turbulent waters of regional and global energy dynamics.